So the question becomes how to thread the needle. How can trade keep flowing freely — which requires that the European Union and United Kingdom have pretty much the same rules and standards — after Brexit, when the point of leaving is for the United Kingdom to establish rules and standards independently of the European Union?
Plan A: ‘No Regulatory Divergence’
On Monday, Mrs. May thought she had the answer. The reliable Irish broadcaster, RTE, reported that in the draft text of an agreement that was shared with Dublin, Britain would guarantee that there would be “no regulatory divergence” on key issues on the island of Ireland. That suggested signing up to many of the same rules and standards as the European Union, in this way eliminating the need for customs checks on the Irish border, keeping many things pretty much as they are now.
If Mrs. May thought that was problem solved, she soon learned better. To Northern Ireland unionists, who dread any hint of unity with the south, any scheme that treats them as separate from the rest of the United Kingdom is their worst nightmare. To them, Plan A sounded like a pit stop on the road to a united Ireland.
Plan B: “Continued Regulatory Alignment”
All good diplomats have a fallback plan, in this case replacing the phrase “no regulatory divergence” in the draft text with “continued regulatory alignment.”
How this change was supposed to solve the problem was not explained, as it means more or less the same thing. In any event, it was probably too late. Arlene Foster, leader of the Democratic Unionist Party, a small Northern Irish party which is propping up Mrs. May’s government in Parliament, said she opposed anything that “separates Northern Ireland economically, or politically, from the rest of the U.K.”
At this point, Scotland’s First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, and the mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, both of whom strongly oppose Brexit, piped up to say that if Northern Ireland could have a separate deal from the United Kingdom, then so should they.
Mrs. May, at a lunch in Brussels on Monday where she had expected to clinch a deal on Britain’s divorce, setting the stage for the next phase of talks on trade, suddenly rushed from the table to call Ms. Foster. Minutes later, she was forced to admit that the whole deal was temporarily off.
Plan C: “Mutually Recognized Rules”
On Tuesday it was left to the Brexit secretary, David Davis, to find a way out of the linguistic dead end. “The presumption of the discussion was that everything we talked about applied to the whole United Kingdom.” he said. “I reiterate that alignment isn’t harmonization. It isn’t having exactly the same rules. It is sometimes having mutually recognized rules, mutually recognized inspection — that is what we are aiming at.”
This explanation was designed to reassure the unionists that “regulatory alignment” would affect the whole of the country — not just Northern Ireland.
Loosely translated, this meant signing up to some European Union standards, but reaching them through a parallel British system that achieved the same outcome. Whatever that was, it would apply to the entire United Kingdom, not just Northern Ireland.
If that calmed some nerves in Belfast, however, it set off new alarms in London among hard-line supporters of Brexit. They want a clean break with Brussels, so to them any hint that the country might sign up to a set of European Union rules, by any means, is anathema.
On Wednesday, the pro-Brexit Conservative Party lawmaker, Jacob Rees-Mogg, used characteristically polite, if colorful, language to accuse Mrs. May of backsliding on the red lines she laid down in Brexit negotiations. Mr. Rees-Mogg appealed to Mrs. May to apply “a new coat of paint to her red lines,” adding that “on Monday they were beginning to look a little bit pink.”
Is There a Plan D?
That remains to be seen. But one possible avenue is a mechanism established under Strand 2 of the Good Friday Agreement, which ended decades of violence, and subsequent accords. These delineates areas — energy, agriculture, food safety and transport, among them — where the two sides can make special rules that apply only to Ireland, north and south. Perhaps, they can build on these and agree on a plan for “mutually recognized rules” along the lines of what they already have.